Earlier today I reported that Chinese memory makers, such as CXMT, are ramping up their production big time, and are set to run hot on the heels of Micron in output even by the end of this year. But hold up, don’t get too excited, because the same research that produced those figures also predicts “the 2030 DRAM squeeze” matching the SK hynix CEO’s warnings from earlier in the week.
As relayed by Citrini researcher Zephyr on X, even by 2030 and factoring in increased supply from China, there will still be a shortfall. Demand for DRAM will still exceed supply—and it won’t even be particularly close.
Citrini’s research predicts a 28.7 exabyte (EB) shortfall out of a total global demand of 157.5 EB. The overall figure includes HBM as well as DRAM, but “general DRAM remains the main bottleneck.”
What’s more, given they haven’t modeled any demand for physical AI (such as humanoides or autonomous cars), Zephyr says: “even if my DC & AI demand estimates are too high (they are not), it will be balanced out by physical AI demand.”